Yahoo – AFP,
Beiyi SEOW, January 17, 2020
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The number of births has now fallen for three consecutive years (AFP Photo/
NICOLAS ASFOURI) |
China's
birth rate dropped last year to its lowest level since the Communist country
was founded in 1949, adding to concerns that an ageing society and shrinking
workforce will pile pressure on a slowing economy.
To avoid a
demographic crisis, the government relaxed its one-child policy in 2016 to
allow people to have two children, but the change has not resulted in an
increase in pregnancies.
In 2019,
the birth rate stood at 10.48 per 1,000 people, down slightly from the year
before, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released
on Friday.
The number
of births has now fallen for three consecutive years, still, there were 14.65
million babies born in 2019.
He Yafu, an
independent demographer based in southern Guangdong province, said the number
of births was the lowest since 1961, the last year of a famine that left tens
of millions dead. He said there were around 11.8 million births that year.
US-based
academic Yi Fuxian, senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
told AFP that even though China has abolished its one-child policy, there has
been a shift in the mindset of the population, with people now used to smaller
families.
He added
that a higher cost of living is also a factor, noting that daycare is expensive
and inconvenient in China, posing another deterrence.
He believes
that China's population is over-estimated, and according to his work, the real
population "began to decline in 2018".
According
to official figures, China's population stood at 1.4 billion by the end of
2019, increasing by 4.67 million from the year before.
While China's
limit on family sizes could be removed altogether eventually, the demographer
He said citizens are still being punished for having three children, even
though some areas have reduced punitive measures.
 |
The
government relaxed its one-child policy in 2016 to allow people to have two
children, but the change has not resulted in more pregnancies (AFP Photo/Ed
Jones)
|
'Slow,
long-term problem'
China has
signalled that it might end limits on family size as a draft of the new Civil
Code -- due to be introduced at the annual session of the rubber-stamp
parliament in March -- omits all mention of "family planning".
The
one-child policy was introduced by top leader Deng Xiaoping to curb population
growth and promote economic development, with exceptions for rural families
whose first-born was a female, and for ethnic minorities.
The measure
was mainly enforced through fines but was also notorious for forced abortions
and sterilisations.
The result
was dramatic: fertility rates dropped from 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to
about 1.6 in the late 1990s. The replacement level for a population is 2.1.
This could
pose a problem for the economy in the future, as the country's workforce
continued to shrink last year.
The NBS
said there were 896.4 million people aged between 16 and 59 -- its population
of working age -- a drop from the 897.3 million in 2018.
This marks
the eighth consecutive year of decline, and the workforce is expected to
decline by as much as 23 percent by 2050.
"The
demographic problem is a slow, long-term one," He told AFP.
He noted
that ageing Japan, which saw rapid growth in the 1980s, has seen almost zero
percent growth in recent years.
China's
economy grew by 6.1 percent in 2019, its slowest pace since 1990 as it was hit
by weaker demand and a bruising trade war with the United States.
"Because
China's education levels have been going up, in the short term, the population
issue should not impact growth too much," he said.
"But
in the long run, if the trend continues, it would pose a huge drag on economic
growth."
