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The cost of
prescription medicines used by millions of people every day is about to
plummet.
The next 14
months will see the arrival of generic versions of seven of the world’s 20
best-selling drugs, including the top two: cholesterol fighter Lipitor and
blood thinner Plavix.
The
magnitude of this wave of expiring drugs patents is unprecedented. Between now
and 2016, blockbusters with about $255 billion in global annual sales are set
to go off patent, notes EvaluatePharma, a London research firm. Generic
competition will decimate sales of the brand-name drugs and slash the cost to
patients and companies that provide health insurance benefits.
Top drugs
getting generic competition by September next year are taken by millions every
day: Lipitor (atorvastatin) is taken by about 4.3 million Americans and Plavix
(clopidogrel) by 1.4 million. Generic versions of big-selling drugs for blood
pressure, asthma, diabetes, depression, high triglycerides, HIV and bipolar
disorder also are coming by then.
The flood
of generics will continue for the next decade or so, as about 120 brand-name
prescription drugs lose market exclusivity, according to Medco Health
Solutions.
In the
United States, patients, along with businesses and taxpayers who help pay for
prescription drugs through corporate and government prescription plans,
collectively will save a small fortune. That’s because generic drugs typically
cost 20 percent to 80 percent less than the brand names.
Doctors
hope the lower prices will significantly reduce the number of people
jeopardizing their health because they can’t afford medicines they need.
Generic
medicines are chemically equivalent to the original brand-name drugs and work
just as well for nearly all patients.
When a drug
loses patent protection, often only one generic version is on sale for the
first six months, so the price falls a little initially. Then, several other
generic makers typically jump in, driving prices down drastically.
Last year
the average generic prescription in the United States cost $72, versus $198 for
the average brand-name drug, according to consulting firm Wolters Kluwer Pharma
Solutions. Those figures average all prescriptions, from short-term to 90-day
ones.
Among the
drugs that recently went off patent, Protonix (pantoprazole), often used for
severe heartburn, now costs just $16 a month for the generic, versus about $170
for the brand name. And of the top sellers that soon will have competition,
Lipitor retails for about $150 a month, Plavix costs almost $200 a month and
blood pressure drug Diovan (valsartan) costs about $125 a month. For those with
drug coverage, their out-of-pocket costs for each of those drugs could drop
below $10 a month.
Generic
Lipitor should hit US pharmacies on Nov. 30 and cost around $10 a month.
For people
with no prescription coverage, the coming savings on some drugs could be much
bigger. Many discount retailers and grocery chains sell the most popular
generics for $5 a month or less to draw in shoppers.
The impact
of the coming wave of generics will be widespread — and swift.
American
insurers use systems that make sure patients are switched to a generic the
first day it’s available. Many health plans require newly diagnosed patients to
start out on generic medicines. And unless the doctor writes “brand only” on a
prescription, if there’s a generic available, that’s almost always what the
pharmacist dispenses.
“A
blockbuster drug that goes off patent will lose 90 percent of its revenue
within 24 months. I’ve seen it happen in 12 months,” says Ben Weintraub, a
research director at Wolters Kluwer Pharma Solutions.
The looming
revenue drop is changing the economics of the industry. In the 1990s, big
pharmaceutical companies were wildly successful at creating pills that millions
of people take every day for common conditions, from heart disease and diabetes
to osteoporosis and chronic pain. Double-digit quarterly profit increases
became the norm. But the patents on those blockbusters, which were filed years
before the drugs went on sale, last for 20 years at most, and many expire soon.
Drug
companies also are trying to stabilize future sales by putting more sales reps
in emerging markets such as China and India, and diversifying into businesses
that get little or no generic competition. Those include vaccines, diagnostic
tests, veterinary medicines and consumer health products.
As the
proportion of prescriptions filled with generic drugs reached 78 percent in
2010, from 57 percent in 2004, annual increases in prescription drug spending
slowed, to just 4 percent in 2010. According to the Generic Pharmaceutical
Association, generics saved the US health care system more than $824 billion
from 2000 through 2009, and now save $1 billion every three days.
The savings
are only going to get greater developed nations’ populations age. John Rother,
policy chief for AARP, a lobby group for retirees, said people who take their
medicines regularly often avoid costly complications and hospitalizations,
bringing the system even bigger savings than the cheaper drugs.
In
addition, many patients taking a particular brand-name drug will defect when a
slightly older rival in the same class goes generic.
Global
sales of Lipitor peaked at $12.9 billion in 2006, the year Zocor (simvastatin),
an older drug in the same class, went generic. Lipitor sales then declined
slowly but steadily to about $10.7 billion last year. That still makes Lipitor
the biggest drug to go generic.
Associated Press
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