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| .A medical worker takes a swab for testing from a Chinese paramilitary police officer in Shenzhen, Guangdong province (AFP Photo/STR) |
Beijing (AFP) - Most people infected by the new coronavirus in China have mild symptoms, with older patients and those with underlying conditions most at risk from the disease, according to a study by Chinese researchers.
The disease
has now killed nearly 1,900 people and infected more than 72,000 in China since
it first emerged in the central city of Wuhan late last year.
A paper
published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology looked at 72,314 confirmed,
suspected, clinically diagnosed, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 illness
across China as of February 11.
It is the
biggest study on novel coronavirus patients since the outbreak began in late
December.
Here are
the main findings from the paper by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and
Prevention (CCDC):
Elderly,
sick at risk:
Some 80.9
percent of infections are classified as mild, 13.8 percent as severe and only
4.7 percent as critical.
The highest
fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8 percent.
The study
finds that patients with cardiovascular disease are most likely to die of
complications from the novel coronavirus, followed by patients with diabetes,
chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.
There were
no deaths among children aged up to 9, despite at least two cases of newborn
babies infected through their mothers.
Up to age
39, the death rate remains low at 0.2 percent.
The
fatality rate increases gradually with age. For people in their 40s it is 0.4
percent, in their 50s it is 1.3 percent, in their 60s it is 3.6 percent and
their 70s it is 8.0 percent.
Men are
more likely to die (2.8 percent) than women (1.7 percent).
The overall
death rate from the virus stood at 2.3 percent.
While the
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2002-2003 affected fewer
people, the fatality rate was nearly 10 percent.
The US
Centres for Disease Control says between 26 million to 36 million Americans
contracted seasonal flu between October 2019 and February 8 this year, and
there were between 14,000 to 36,000 deaths -- a fatality rate of around 0.1
percent.
'Wuhan
exposure'
Nearly 86
percent of those who have contracted the illness had either lived in or
travelled to Wuhan, where a seafood market that illegally sold wild animals is
believed to be the original source of the virus.
The city in
central China's Hubei province has been under lockdown since January 23.
Risk to
medical workers
A total of
3,019 health workers have been diagnosed, 1,716 of whom were confirmed cases,
and five had died as of February 11, the report said.
An analysis
of 1,688 severe cases among medical staff showed that 64 percent of them were
working in Wuhan.
"The
percentage of severe cases among Wuhan medical staff has gradually decreased
from 38.9 percent at the peak (on January 28) to 12.7 percent in early
February," the report said.
A hospital
director in Wuhan died from the illness on Tuesday.
Earlier
this month Wuhan ophthalmologist Li Wenliang, who had been punished by
authorities for sounding the alarm about the virus, also died.
'Downward
trend'
The
epidemic reached its "first peak" between January 24 and 26, the
report said.
It suggests
there is has been a "downward trend" in the overall epidemic curve
since February 11 -- meaning the spread of the disease, especially outside
Hubei province, was slowing.
On February
13, China broadened its definition of confirmed cases to include those who were
clinically diagnosed through lung imaging, in addition to those with a positive
lab test result.
The report
hints that China's decision to lock down Wuhan -- a city of 11 million people
-- and impose strict transport curbs in other affected areas may have paid off.
'Possible
rebound'
The virus
spread as millions of people criss-crossed the country for the Lunar New Year
holiday in late January.
The authors
warn that with many people returning from the holiday, the country needs to
brace itself for a "possible rebound of the epidemic".
Coronaviruses
may continue to "adapt over time and become more virulent", the
report warns and urges doctors to "remain vigilant".
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