Experts urge China to fully lift one-child policy

Want China Times, Xinhua 2014-12-23

Infants at a hospital in Taiyuan, Shanxi province, Dec. 4. (File photo/Xinhua)

With the easing of the one-child policy across China resulting in disappointing results, experts are urging the government to fully lift the restrictions to counteract the countries' aging population.

Last week, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences noted that the demographic dividend has gradually diminished since 2010, despite new rules that allow couples to have a second child if either is an only child.

The fertility rate is 1.4, close to the "low fertility trap" international standard, which is 1.3, according to the report.

"History shows that no country that slips into this trap returns to replacement levels," according to Cai Fang, who co-compiled the academy's report.

Cai said the easing of the one-child policy would not make much of a difference and called on the government to lift all restrictions, "the sooner, the better."

DISAPPOINTING POLICY

As a graying China encourages its residents to have more babies, a large number of couples are giving the policy the cold shoulder.

Zhang Long, a civil servant in Beijing and a father of a 4-year-old, said he and his wife decided against a second child, considering the "expenses needed to support one more child."

The government softened its one-child policy, allowing a second child if either parent is an only child, after the third plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November 2013, though the new rules have seen a lackluster take up, as many young couples feel pressured by work and living costs.

Of the country's 11 million couples eligible for a second child, only 800,000–roughly one in every 14 people–had applied to do so by the end of this September, the latest statistics from the National Health and Family Planning Commission showed.

According to a November survey by Beijing's China Youth Daily, of the 2,052 respondents, about 58% had not applied due to the "high economic costs," with "too much time needed" and "it was enough to have only one child" listed as the next choices.

Other reasons included "the view on childbearing has changed," "the application procedure is complicated," and "women have to sacrifice too much [with a second child]".

That trend has fueled concerns among experts, with many saying the partial loosening of the policy will do little to offset the disappearing demographic.

MORE OPEN POLICY NEEDED

The second-child policy will help balance China's demographic structure in the long run, as it will increase the working population, according to Cai's research.

"While the shift of the current policy is important, authorities should track fertility rates so adjustment to the policy can be made accordingly," Cai added.

If the population policy is not reformed, the future population growth rate will probably be less than 4% by 2050, which will threaten the current trend of a fast-growing economy, said Lu Yang, co-author of the report.

China's central government, however, remains cautious, with the National Health and Family Planning Commission repeatedly saying that there was no timeline for further changes to the second-child policy.

But even if China further lifted controls on its birth rate, the fertility rate will not increase drastically, as China is on its way to an aging society, according to the report.

"It is true that the population policy will affect the fertility rate, but the decrease in birth rate is an irreversible trend, since the desire for fertility in people wanes," Lu said.